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Summary
After falling out of the league, Payne revived his career at the end of the '19-'20 season, looking like a legitimate backup point guard for the Suns as they went undefeated in the Orlando bubble. Payne shot the lights out with a 62.3% eFG%. Because of the small sample size, there was certainly some doubt that Payne would be able to continue that level of play in the '20'-21 season.

This season, he has shown that his play in the bubble was not a fluke. Payne shot 45% from three and was also effective at the rim and from floater range. In the playoffs, Payne was a little up-and-down, but had some huge games when Chris Paul was either struggling with his shoulder against the Lakers or in the health and safety protocols against the Clippers.

Payne is a dynamic point guard that can score off-the-dribble or spotting up, and has decent enough size to play next to another point guard. He may get targeted on defense due to his thin frame, especially if he tries to defend wings, but that worry diminishes if he mostly plays against second units. Payne as shown he can be a high-end backup point guard, and I think he can get offers in the $10+ million range.
 
Cap Considerations
Payne will be an unrestricted free agent with a $1.7 million cap hold and Early Bird Rights. Using his Early Bird rights, the Suns can offer Payne a starting salary of 5% above the average salary (around $10 million), which may not be enough to retain him if he gets bigger offers elsewhere. Also, re-signing Payne could push the Suns into the luxury tax or prevent them from being able to use the full MLE.  

Therefore, other teams will have a legitimate shot at signing Payne away from Phoenix without having to make him a huge offer. If Payne demands a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out. It is possible that Payne could be had for the full MLE.

Potential Teams: Suns, Knicks, Mavericks, Pelicans, Heat

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $30 million with the Suns

Actual Contract: 3-year, $19 million (3rd season $2M guaranteed) with the Suns

I thought it would take close to the full Early Bird Exception to bring back Payne, so the Suns did a good job of bringing him back at this contract.

Last updated: 8/19/2021

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