The Case for the Over

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They won 50 games last year and arguably got better with Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Quentin Grimes replacing Josh Green, Derrick Jones, Jr., and Tim Hardaway Jr. Klay’s shooting could give them something they haven’t quite had before, and he should get a lot of open looks around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. 

They were much better last season after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, and will have a full season with them this year. Derrick Lively should improve going into his second season.  

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The Case for the Under

 

They could be pretty bad defensively. Klay has taken steps back in that regard, and starting him, Doncic, and Irving could be an untenable defensive lineup. They were 23rd in defense last year two seasons ago, and they could be really bad again. They have had the most success with defense around Doncic whether that’s guys like Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith in 2022, or Derrick Jones Jr. last year.
 

.While Thompson getting a lot of open spot-ups looks sounds good in theory, will he be okay with scrapping long off-the-dribble twos from his game? There’s always some uncertainty with Irving, whether it’s just bad health or some other reason, but he always seems to miss a bunch of games.

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Conclusion

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​I’m not sure I’m sold on the over as much as everyone else, considering this has mostly been a consensus over among evaluators. The vig is pretty bad on the over here, so much that it’s almost worth taking an alternative line and betting over 50.5 if you really believe in this team. However, I still think this team is talented enough to win 50+ games, so I like the over.