The Case for the Over

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Despite having an extremely low win total line, the Wizards have some decent talent. A starting lineup of Malcolm Brogdon, Corey Kispert, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyle Kuzma, and Jonas Valanciunas isn’t that bad. 

 

They weren’t as bad as their 15-67 record showed last year, as they had the point differential of a 19-win team. Jordan Poole had a pretty rough year last year, and if he can bounce back at all, it could help the Wizards be not as terrible. 

 

The Case for the Under

 

The Wizards won 15 games last year and arguably got worse by trading away Deni Avdija and losing Tyus Jones. They also won’t have half a season of Daniel Gafford like they did last year. 
 

They are still only in year two of their rebuild, so there is no rush to get better. They spent their Mid-Level Exception on Saddiq Bey, who is likely to miss the entire season, which shows where their priorities are. They have every incentive to be bad, as they don’t have a franchise guy yet or anyone that looks even close to that.

 

They don’t have a real leader or primary creator offensively, and their defensive talent is suspect. They could give a lot of minutes to young guys like Coulibaly or their three rookies in Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George, all of whom will likely go through struggles as rookies.
 

Brogdon is already hurt to start the season, and him missing time could leave a gaping hole in competent point guard play, something that historically has derailed teams’ seasons. 
 

They could trade veterans like Brogdon, Kuzma, or Valanciunas mid-way through the season in order to get more draft capital or young players. 

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Conclusion

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​This is just a really low number, and while the Wizards have about as good a chance of winning below 20 games as anyone, I still think they can hit this over without sacrificing any of their long term goals. They could definitely be the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the league and still win 21 games, based on the history of the bottom of the league. I may feel stupid about this in six months, but I like the over.