Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins
Utah Jazz - 29.5 wins
October 19, 2024
Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 6-3
The Case for the Over
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The Jazz won 31 games last year and mostly bring back a similar roster, and that’s including a late stretch of games where they punted on the play-in and prioritized their draft pick. They have started the last two seasons playing decent ball (26-26 both year) before making mid-season trades and throwing in the towel for the rest of the season
They have a lot of young players that should improve, with no significant age-related regression candidates, as Jordan Clarkson (31) is their only rotation player over 28 years old. If Keyonte George or Taylor Hendricks make significant leaps in their season seasons, this could be a pretty talented squad.
Lauri Markkanen only played 55 games last year, so if he plays closer to 70 games this year, that could get them a few more wins.
Will Hardy is just a good coach that tends to get a lot out of his rosters.
They haven’t been in full tank mode either of the last two seasons, one of which was the Victor Wembanyama draft. Will they really change that approach this year?
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The Case for the Under
After drafting three top-32 picks in 2024 and three first round picks in 2023, they could give those young players a lot of playing time and focus more on development than winning. The early messaging from the organization seems to be focused on player development.
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The Jazz were really bad after trading Kelly Olynyk and Simone Fontecchio near the trade deadline last season. They have a top-10 protected pick that could cause them to tank late to keep it, like they did last season. They could trade Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, or maybe even Collin Sexton for more draft equity.
They didn’t do anything to address their bad defense, which was worst in the league last year, and I would expect it to be similar this year (although not having Olynyk for the full season might actually help defensively).
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Conclusion
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​This team has some talent, and a really good coach, but I just don’t see how they get near this number. I also think their talent is simply lower than maybe every other team in the West. They have been competitive in the first halves of seasons the last two years, but I think this might be the year they prioritize youth and development from the onset, especially with so many recent draft picks on the roster.