top of page

NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

San Antonio Spurs - 36.5 wins

October 19, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 5-4

The Case for the Over

​

Victor Wembanyama could just be that awesome, and single-handedly push the Spurs over this line. With the additions of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes, they have more of a real team this year. They could be this year’s version of the 2024 Houston Rockets where they replace a bunch of fringe NBA player minutes with actual NBA minutes and make a big step forward. They could be a pretty good defensive team, with Wembanyama being the heavy favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.
 

They were actually decent last year with a real point guard, and should have that most of the time with Chris Paul and Tre Jones rather than the Jeremy Sochan at point guard experiment that failed last year. 
 

They also have a lot of young guys that should be expected to improve in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Sochan., Malaki Branham, and Blake Wesley. 

​

The Case for the Under

 

Although they were better than the record last year, they weren’t that much better. They won 22 games and had the point differential of just a 26-win team, so this line is projecting a pretty big improvement, which may be hard to accomplish.
 

I’m worried about their offense, which was 26th in the league last year. They just don’t have that high-level creator that can consistently create advantages. Devin Vassell has made strides in that regard, but I wouldn’t count on him to fill that role just yet. Plus, he’s starting the season injured, which is not a good sign for someone that has a history of missing games. I also don’t think Wembanyama is quite ready to do that on offense. They also have a serious lack of outside shooting. 

 

There are still a bunch of young guys that need to get time, and those players may not impact winning just yet. Will Barnes actually play, or will they focus on youth? Both Paul and Barnes could be traded (or in Paul’s case, possibly bought out) if they are not in playoff contention. â€‹

​

Conclusion

​​

​This was a clear under from me last year, and that worked out. I don’t feel quite as confident as I did last year, mostly because of how good Wembenyama might be, but I still like the under. 

bottom of page