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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Sacramento Kings - 47.5 wins

October 19, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 5-4

The Case for the Over

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The Kings won 48 games last season, and had a talent upgrade by replacing Harrison Barnes with DeMar DeRozan. That could push them back up to having an elite offense again like they did in ’22-’23, since they had just the 14th best offense last season. They also should be very good at the end of games with DeRozan and De’Aaron Fox being two of the best clutch players in the league. 
 

They don’t have any old players that you would expect to regress this season, as DeRozan is their oldest rotation player, and the only one over 30. 

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The Case for the Under

 

They were insanely healthy over the past two seasons, and that is unlikely to happen again, with Domantas Sabonis (82), Barnes (82), Keegan Murray (77), Fox (74), and Malik Monk (72) all playing a ton of games and barely missing any time last season. There’s virtually no chance they are able to repeat that (although to be fair, I said the same thing before last season), and they could easily be significantly less healthy this season. 
 

They only had the point differential of a 43-win team last season, so they do have some room to improve to get over this line, unless they perform really well in the clutch, which could happen but historically is very hard to predict. 
 

They are a little light on shooting, especially if Keon Ellis starts at shooting guard for defense. Alternatively, they could be a really had defensive starting lineup if Monk or Kevin Huerter start instead of Ellis. 
 

The DeRozan fit might not be as great. He likely won’t be a spot-up threat off the ball. There might be too much overlap in skillset with Fox to the point it’s not much of an upgrade on offense. He could hurt their defense.
 

Other teams in the strong West could just push them down. It’s rare for a 9 or 10 seed to have this many wins, even though it happened last year. I don’t love their depth, particularly in the frontcourt.

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Conclusion

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​I’m just not sold on the DeRozan fit, and the overall team health is a big factor, as I’m concerned that not having the same injury luck this season will drag the Kings down. I also just like a lot of other teams in the West more than the Kings, so this number just feels too high. I like the under.   

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