Portland Trailblazers - 20.5 wins

October 20, 2024

The Case for the Over

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There’s some talent on this team, especially defensively with guys like Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija, and Matisse Thybulle. They won 21 games last year, and have a bunch of young players that could improve. 
 

Scoot Henderson could be much improved in his second season. We have seen high-level point guard prospects like Darius Garland and De’Aaron Fox have bad rookie years before really improving after that. Shaedon Sharpe could also make a big leap. 
 

Might be some organizational pressure to show some improvement after several years of being bad. Chauncey Billups still has things to prove to be considered as an above-average coach. 

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The Case for the Under

This team is still in rebuild mode, and will look to build around Henderson, Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan. Developing those players will likely be the focal point of the organization, rather than trying to win games now. They have already shown the willingness to throw away games late in the season to improve their draft pick, and could easily do so again if they are out of the play-in hunt. 
 

They only had the point differential of an 18-win team last year, and pretty much brough back the same team. Does Avdija over 39 games of Malcolm Brogdon help that much? They were actually okay when Brogdon played last year. Veterans like Grant, Robert Williams, Deandre Ayton, and even Anfernee Simons could potentially be traded during the year for future assets. 
 

This is not a very deep team. They could end up giving a lot of rotation minutes to guys that are still learning how to impact winning, or just borderline fringe NBA guys in general. 
 

They don’t have much shooting. They were 29th in offense last year, and could be really bad again. Grant and Simons are overmatched as the #1 and #2 offensive options. Who’s going to score for this team coming off the bench?

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Conclusion

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Overall this is just a pretty low number, and I think the market is generally overreacting to the bottom teams being so bad last year. I think this team could win just enough games to hit the over, so that’s where I’m leaning for the Trailblazers.