top of page

NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Phoenix Suns - 48.5 wins

October 19, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 2-7

The Case for the Over

​

The Suns won 49 games last season and had the point differential of a 51-win team, and they most likely got better with the addition of some solid free agents, mainly Tyus Jones. They will also have a full season of Royce O’Neale, who was acquired at the trade deadline last year
 

Jones and Monte Morris, two very low turnover players, could help with that issue that plagued them last year. Mason Plumlee should be an upgrade over Drew Eubanks in the backup center role. 
 

New coach Mike Budenholzer tends to get a lot of wins during the regular season, evidenced by his success in his previous stops in Atlanta and Milwaukee. He could get them to shoot more threes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns them into a top-5 offense after finishing just 9th last season. 
 

Teams with multiple stars often take a little while to get used to playing together, so the second year of Bradley Beal playing next to Kevin Durant and Devin Booker could be more successful than the first. 

​

The Case for the Under

 

Booker tends to have some nagging injuries and miss games. KD could get hurt as he ages, and he is unlikely to play more than the 75 games he played last season. Grayson Allen might regress in shooting after hitting 46% of his 3s last season, or he may not play as well coming off bench. 
 

Budenholzer might want this team to shoot more 3s, but will they? Star players often are reluctant to change because of the high level of success they have achieved, so they simply might continue to take a lot of midrange jumpers instead of open spot-up 3s. 
 

They’re still small if playing point guards next to their big 3, as they don’t have a lot of big wings that are good enough to get playing time. They also have a very limited ability to upgrade since they have traded away all of their draft picks and have restrictions due to being above the 2nd apron. Jusuf Nurkic could regress, both on defense and his ability to finish at the rim.

​

Conclusion

​

​Most people have given up on the Suns as being a legitimate title contender. I’m not totally there yet, even though I think it’s pretty unlikely. However, I think this team is simply too talented for a line this low, and I believe in Budenholzer quite a bit to get this team to around 50 wins. I like the over. 

bottom of page