The Case for the Over

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The Magic won 47 games last year and have a roster full of young players that should improve. The top five players in minutes last season that are returning are all 25 years old or younger. They also retained all of their main players, and got better by adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They don’t have any regression candidates, other than maybe Gary Harris, whose role isn’t as important with the addition of KCP.

 

Franz Wagner could take a leap into All-Star considerations, and should shoot better than the 28% he shot from three last season, considering he hit 37% during his first two seasons. Paolo Banchero could also take a major leap in his third season. 

Wendell Carter Jr. only played 55 games last year, so him playing more could push their win total up a bit. 

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The Case for the Under

 

The Magic overall were pretty healthy last season. Banchero played 80 games, Jalen Suggs played 75, Franz Wagner played 72, and Cole Anthony played 81. Even Jonathan Isaac played 58 games. It’s unlikely they will be that healthy again. 

Teams just may be more ready for them, as they will no longer be surprising anyone. The league, particularly the top of the East, might have just gotten better around them, and could push them down below this line.

What is their offensive ceiling? They were 22nd in offense last season, and haven’t had an above-average offense in the past 12 seasons. Can they really get to 50 wins without a good offense?

You often see teams make a big leap and then take a small step back, which could happen to the Magic after going from 34 wins in ’22-’23 to 47 wins in ’23-’24. 

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Conclusion

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​I like this team, and could certainly see them going over this number. However, it just feels a little too high, mainly because they don’t have a ton of shooting offensively, and I don’t think they will be as healthy as they were last year. I’ll take the under, but I don’t feel great about it.