The Case for the Over

 

​The Thunder won 57 games last year (wit the point differential of a 59-win team) and got better. They have no regression candidates from an age perspective, and have young guys that should only get better. 
 

They will likely have a top-5 defense once again after adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, and could even be the best defense in the league. Hartenstein in particular addresses their rebounding issue, which was one of their weaknesses last year. 
 

This is a very deep team, with probably 11 solid rotation players at least, so they should be able to withstand injuries during the year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate MVP candidate, and has gotten better each year. Mark Daigneault is one of the best coaches in the league. 

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The Case for the Under

 

They were really healthy last year, with SGA, Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey (now departed), Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Cason Wallace all playing in 71 games or more. Jaylin Williams even played a very solid 68 games. It’s unlikely they will be that healthy again, although I did say the same thing last year. 
 

They got a little lucky last year, giving up a lot of corner 3s, but their opponents shot pretty poorly. They likely won’t get that level of shot luck again defensively. 
 

Teams could be more ready for them this year, as they won’t be the surprisingly good young team, they will be of the powerhouses that teams are prepared for. They could miss some of Giddey’s passing and playmaking offensively. They also could experiment more during the regular season, and be more playoff focused rather than banking a ton of regular season wins. Teams that make a big leap in a single year, like the Thunder did last year tend to come back down a little bit the next year.

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Conclusion

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​This team has all the makings of a regular season juggernaut. They are deep, well-coached, have an MVP candidate, and didn’t have a super short offseason since they were knocked out in the second round. This number is high enough that it gets me a little worried, but I still like the over.