The Case for the Over

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They won 49 games last season and had the point differential of a 52-win team, and probably got better from a talent perspective by trading Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr. for Dejounte Murray. They just have solid talent all around. They have a bunch of wings that can play multiple positions, which is what this league really values. 
 

They have good continuity and a roster full of young guys that should improve. Brandon Ingram is still only 27 and Williamson is only 24. If any of Trey Murphy III (24), Herb Jones (26), Jose Alvarado (25), or Jordan Hawks (22) take a major leap, that would be huge for this team. 

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The Case for the Under

 

Health will always be a question with this team, starting with Williamson, who played 70 games last year but only played in 114 games over the four seasons before that. It could be nothing, but they are already dealing with an injury to Murphy to start the season. 
 

C.J. McCollum has had a couple slightly below-average seasons for his standards, and if his efficiency continues to regress or he struggles to create separation off the dribble at age 33, that could mean trouble for the Pelicans offensively.
 

The Pelicans have a gaping hole at center, with rookie Yves Missi and Daniel Theis as the two main options at that position. Williamson could play some center, but it’s unclear if that can work long-term, especially defensively. It reminds me a little bit of last year’s Grizzlies, as Steven Adams got hurt before the season and they didn’t really have a replacement ready. They dealt with injuries, got off to a rough start, and before you knew it the season was lost. I don’t see things going quite that wrong, but there are some parallels. 
 

There is some overlap in skillsets with Murray, McCollum, and Ingram, as all of those players like to operate in the midrange, and Williamson is probably best utilized by having as much spacing around him as possible. 
 

Ingram could be a distraction, with him clearly being thrown around in trade rumors but still not being traded. He could also just be traded for future assets that don’t help them now. 

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Conclusion

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​This is a toss up for me. I don’t want to bet against the talent on this team, but I just don’t love betting on Williamson to stay healthy, and I think not having a good center will be a problem for them. That gets me to lean slightly under.