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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Minnesota Timberwolves - 52.5 wins

October 20, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 3-6

The Case for the Over

The Timberwolves won 56 games last year and had the point differential of a 58-win team, so they would have to take a real step back to go under this line. 
 

Anthony Edwards continues to make huge strides, and he could become a legitimate MVP candidate. On a lesser note, Jaden McDaniels is young and improving, and could continue to grow his offense. 
 

They got deeper with the Karl Anthony-Towns trade. Because the Towns-Rudy Gobert fit was never the best, Julius Randle could give them similar production, while adding a valuable player in Donte DiVincenzo. They now have three really good bench pieces in Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Joe Ingles looked a little washed in Orlando last year, but he could give them some passing and shooting, and has good pick-and-roll chemistry with Gobert dating back to their time together in Utah. 

The Case for the Under

 

 

They were very healthy last year, with Alexander-Walker (82), Reid (81), Edwards (79), Kyle Anderson (79), Gobert (76), Conley (76) and McDaniels (72) all missing 10 games or fewer. It’s unlikely they will be that healthy again. 

 

Gobert had a great year last season, winning Defensive Player of the Year, but he could decline, as he’s already 32 years old, and we saw the Timberwolves struggle when he’s not at his best, like they did in ’22-’23. If he provides just good rim protection, rather than elite rim protection, that will be a problem going forward. Mike Conley is 36 years old and also could be a regression candidate, as that tends to happen with small guards.
 

The Randle and Gobert fit could be bad, and it may just torpedo the offense. There’s not a lot of shooting in the starting lineup, and Edwards could be driving into crowds. Their defense should be really good again, but what are the chances they are by far the best defense like they were last year? 
 

They could miss Kyle Anderson more than expected, as he is a solid rotation player that they didn’t really replace. I don’t love having to depend on Rob Dillingham, as undersized young guards tend to struggle, and he could just be really bad on defense. 

Conclusion

This is one of the harder calls for me. I wasn’t sold on the Towns trade helping them in the short-term, but I can see the argument for it, particularly because Donte DiVincenzo gives them some much-needed shooting. However, there are just too many things I’m concerned about that make me worried about them winning a lot of games, so I’m taking the under. 

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