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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Milwaukee Bucks - 50.5 wins

October 20, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 4-5

The Case for the Over

They likely won’t have the same coaching turmoil that they had last year. Having a full year, and a training camp, with Doc Rivers could just stabilize them and get them back to their 50+ win days. Rivers has generally been a very good regular season coach. 
 

Damian Lillard could be more comfortable, and just better overall, than last year after dealing with some personal issues and adjusting to playing in Milwaukee. 
 

Giannis Antetokounmpo could just be that good and lead this team to 50+ wins single-handedly. He still has the potential to be the best player in the world because of his two-way impact. 

 

Khris Middleton looked good in the playoffs, and if he can provide that secondary scoring and creation, the Bucks could be really hard to stop. 
 

The Bucks won 49 games last year and probably got slightly better from a roster perspective, replacing Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, and Patrick Beverley with Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince, and Delon Wright. 

The Case for the Under

 

 

We should be weary of overrating great minimum signings. Phoenix was lauded for their minimum signings in the summer of 2023, but it didn’t move the needle for them (on a side note: they did even better this summer and it will be interesting to see how much impact they make this upcoming season). 
 

Middleton’s injuries are scary, and he could miss significant time or just not play at the same level we’re accustomed to seeing from him. They have a lot of regression candidates due to age. I don’t have a lot of confidence in their young guys stepping up and contributing. 
 

Brook Lopez is 36 years old and could start to regress at any time. Lillard and Middleton are also in their 30’s, and this overall is an older team that could see some age-related regression from a number of players.  
 

Their health was actually pretty good last year, with all of Bobby Portis (82), Lopez (79), Beasley (79), Pat Connaughton (76), Lillard (73), Giannis (73) all playing in a lot of games, which is unlikely to happen again.  They probably don’t have the assets to make a trade that upgrades the roster.

Conclusion

This is a tough call for me. I think this team is talented, and I could certainly see them winning a lot of games. I’m just worried about their age and health, and could see that being a big issue going forward. If key guys miss time or just take a step back, they might not have the depth to withstand it. I’ll take the under.

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