The Case for the Over

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The Heat have arguably the best coach in the league in Erik Spoelstra. I’m not sure how many wins that’s worth, but he’s one of those guys you never feel great betting against. He almost always gets the Heat to have a good defense, even when they don’t have great defensive personnel (they were 7th in defense last year). 
 

In a potential contract year, Jimmy Butler could have all the incentive in the world to have a great season. The messaging early is that he is focused more on the regular season than previous years. Even though Butler has had several below-average regular seasons, the Heat have been right at this number or above it each season since he’s been there. 
 

I don’t love their depth, but I think it’s decent. They will also have Terry Rozier for a full year after trading for him mid-way through last season. They have some young guys in Jaime Jaquez and Nikola Jovic that could improve, and we should never underestimate the Heat’s ability to find diamonds in the rough out of nowhere. 

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The Case for the Under

 

The Heat only won 46 games last year, and had the point differential of a 45-win team, so just a slight step back could push them below this line. Losing Caleb Martin and not really replacing him could hurt them.
 

Can Butler actually play more games? I’m a little skeptical that him missing games in prior years was totally in his control. At age 35, it’s reasonable to expect him to be dealing with some injuries here and there. There’s also a disaster scenario where the season starts out poorly and the Heat trade him.
 

They might struggle to find lineups that can both defend and be good offensively. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson are good offensively but poor defensively, and Haywood Highsmith is a good defender but struggled offensively. 
 

At 36 years old, Kevin Love is certainly a regression candidate, and there’s a chance he could just be washed up, giving the Heat one less solid rotation player.

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Conclusion

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This is one of the more difficult lines on the board. I could really see this go either way, but I generally just have trust in the Heat organization, and think they will beat this number. I like the over.