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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Memphis Grizzlies - 47.5 wins

October 20, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 4-5

The Case for the Over

The Grizzlies won 51 games two years ago and 56 wins the year before that, and there’s a real argument that this team will be closer to those teams than last year, which was arguably a throw-away year considering all the injuries that happened. year and had the point differential of a 53-win team.

 

Their core three in Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are awesome, and could continue to improve considering there are still fairly young. They don’t really have any regression candidates besides Marcus Smart (more on him below). Morant could get back to All-NBA form and push this team to 50+ wins again, especially if JJJ gets becomes a DPOY candidate again and Bane becomes a fringe All-Star.
 

They had success in the past by having Steven Adams beast people on the offensive glass and mash defenders on screens, allowing Morant a free run to the rim, and they may be able to re-create that with Zach Edey. 

The Case for the Under

 

They are a little small, as their best lineup has Morant, Smart, and Bane all playing together. Smart and Bane both play bigger than they are, but having positional size in the current NBA is a big deal. That is probably more of an issue in the playoffs than the regular season, but it could end up being a bigger problem expected, and we didn’t get to see this group much together last year. 
 

I don’t love their depth. Gone are the days of Tyus Jones, De’Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson wrecking bench lineups. It’s possible that Scottie Pippen Jr., Vince Williams, John Konchar, G.G. Jackson, Santi Aldama, and Brandon Clarke can cobble together something similar, but I don’t trust it to the same extent. If Morant misses significant time, which is possible considering his injury history, they could really be in trouble again. Williams and G.G. Jackson are already starting the year injured.
 

Smart could just be on the decline. He’s over 30 now, and didn’t look great in the limited games he played last season. Last year was such a lost season that it may not be predictive of his performance going forward, but I am a little worried about him. 
 

Edey is older and more experienced than most rookies, but he’s still a rookie trying to be the starting center for a really good team. He’s also not a top-5 pick or something, as many thought it was a reach with him going 9th after most had him projected in the late teens or later. I’m not sure I feel great about relying on him in that sort of role. Edey’s deficiencies might matter more in the playoffs than the regular season, but if he struggles to defend in space and gets attacked often, it could be a problem. 

Conclusion

This is one of the hardest teams to predict, in my opinion. They really could go in a lot of directions. Overall, I’m worried about Morant’s ability to stay healthy, and a little concerned about this team’s depth. That makes me lean toward the under here. 

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