Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins
LA Clippers - 35.5 wins
October 19, 2024
Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 4-5
The Case for the Over
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They won 51 games last year. Does losing Paul George make a 16-win difference? This is still a pretty talented team. James Harden is no longer in his prime, but he’s never missed the playoffs and could maybe still lead this team to a decent offense. There is defensive talent on the perimeter in Terance Mann, Derrick Jones, Jr., and Nic Batum. Zubac has become of the best rim protectors in the league.
Ty Lue is a good coach and someone that I generally believe in to have a positive impact. It doesn’t look good now, but if Kawhi Leonard can play a decent chunk of the season, and at the impact he did last year, he could drive their win total above this.
They have no reason to tank, as the Thunder can swap first round picks with them in 2025. In fact, if the Rockets are close to the Clippers, the Clippers might have extra motivation to win games and finish above the Rockets, as the Thunder can swap picks with either the Clippers or Rockets.
They have a decently deep team, as I think they have nine players that you should be comfortable with giving rotation minutes to. If Bones Hyland can improve and remove some of the inefficiencies of his game or defend better, he could make that number ten.
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The Case for the Under
There’s a chance we don’t see Leonard play a single game this year. He is already out indefinitely, and his history just shows that you can’t really rely on him to be available. Particularly if the Clippers start off poorly and fall out of the playoff race early, they may find no reason to bring him back.
They are an older team, as almost everyone in the rotation is in their 30’s, and they don’t have anyone that’s a candidate for a breakout year. Almost everyone in the rotation is more likely to regress than improve.
They were pretty healthy last year, so the 51-win pace they played at last year may not have been sustainable even if they brought back Paul George. They have some really shaky depth at backup center, and if multiple guys get injured they could be giving minutes to some unproven players.
If they are out of the playoff race and not close to the Rockets, they could shut down players near the end of the season just to keep them healthy for next season, or they could trade veterans and start building back their asset base. Who cares if you give the Thunder the 8th pick instead of the 11th pick?
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Conclusion
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I liked this under a lot more when it was 38.5, but the Kawhi Leonard news actually makes this more difficult, in my opinion. This team is definitely more talented than this number, but Leonard's health issues don't give me confidence in this team, so I like the under.