The Case for the Over

​

The Rockets won 41 games last year and didn’t lose any key pieces. They have a lot of young guys that should continue to get better, and not many older players that they rely on that are major regression candidates. Between Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Cam Whitmore, seeing strides from any of them could drive their win total up. They played really well in the back half of last year and almost made a run to the play in. 

They have more of an identity under Ime Udoka, who turned them into a top-7 defense when nobody expected them to be nearly that high. 

The Rockets could be fighting with the Clippers for who has the better record, because the Thunder can swap with either of them. Although if they are near this win total number, they are likely trying to win anyway, but this could give them a little extra motivation going down the stretch that otherwise may not be there, depending on seeding.

​

The Case for the Under

 

The Rockets only had the point differential of a 38 win team last year, so they would need a fairly sizeable jump to beat this number. Was the back stretch of last season really that real? A chunk of those wins were against tanking teams that had already thrown in the towel on the season. They also had some opponent shooting luck last year that might not continue. They have an overall lack of shooting on offense, which could hurt their spacing and their offense overall. 

 

How much do we really believe in this team compared to others in the West? Will a 9 or 10 seed get this many wins? It happened last year, but will it happen again? Do they have an elite top guy, or even an All-Star? Sengun can and likely will at some point, but is it this year? After taking a big step forward, like the Rockets did last year after only winning 22 games in '22-'23, you often see teams take a small step back after making a big leap. 

​

Conclusion

​

​This team just feels like one more season away for me to be comfortable going with the over here. I could be wrong, and the Rockets could be this year’s version of the ’23-’24 Orlando Magic, but for now I see them just outside of the Play-In, and it’s hard for me to pick them to win more than 43 games.​