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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Detroit Pistons - 25.5 wins

October 20, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 3-6

The Case for the Over

The Pistons added some decent veterans in Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr. They will also have a full season with Simone Fontecchio, who was acquired at the trade deadline last season. Even simply replacing the 2,000 minutes that Killian Hayes and James Wiseman played last year with decent players this year could make a huge difference in the win total. 
 

They finally have some shooting around Cade Cunningham.  Cunningham should benefit from the spacing, and could have a breakout year and make it into All-Star consideration.
 

Other young guys could improve, like Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, and Marcus Sasser. If newly-hired shooting coach Fred Vinson can help these guys improve their jump shot, it could be huge for their development.
 

New coach J.B. Bickerstaff could be an upgrade, as the Monty Williams experiment was a failure from the jump. Bickerstaff has had some success with younger teams, and actually wants to be there.
 

After being bad for a while there may be some organizational pressure to show progress. They could be this year’s version of the ’22-‘23 Orlando Magic or ’23-’24 Houston Rockets– a team that was projected near the bottom but made some real improvements into a mid-30’s or low 40-win team.

The Case for the Under

 

The Pistons won 14 games last year and had the point differential of an 18-win team. Are they really that much better? 

 

They added some shooting, but will they play that shooting though? They added guys like Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, and Monte Morris in previous seasons, and that didn’t help much. They still have young guys that need to play in order for the organization to truly evaluate them. Ron Holland is a raw rookie that could struggle when he gets playing time.
 

Do they really want to take a step forward in a strong draft year? The allure of Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey may cause this team to throw in the towel early.

Conclusion

 

I think this team could finish above this line and still feel okay heading to lottery night. I like them more than a few teams in the league, so I don’t see them being at the very bottom again. I like the over. 

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