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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Cleveland Cavaliers - 49.5 wins

October 19, 2024

Performance vs. O/U Line Over Last 10 Years (excluding shortened '19-'20 season): 3-6

The Case for the Over

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The Cavs won 48 games last year and had a fairly bad injury year. Darius Garland in particular should have a better year after missing significant time with a jaw fracture that caused him to lose weight. Evan Mobley could take a leap. 
 

I like new coach Kenny Atkinson and I think he could improve their offense. 


Dean Wade could be healthy, giving them another strong rotation player.  They just have a strong depth of reasonable NBA players, and giving a lot of minutes to fringe NBA players is how teams struggle in the regular season. 

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The Case for the Under

 

The East may have just gotten better around them, pushing them down below this number and possibly into the play-in race. The Knicks and 76ers made big offseason talent additions, and the Magic and Pacers could see improvements from their young players that could push them past the Cavaliers. 

 

They could make a cost cutting move to duck luxury tax. I wouldn’t expect them to get much worse but even dumping Georges Niang just gives them one fewer rotation player.
 

The starters haven’t fully jelled together yet, as starting two small guards and two bigs is a difficult proposition, even if the talent is there. If those struggles continue, it could just put pressure on the Cavaliers that could cause them to go in a number of directions.

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Conclusion

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This is one of my favorite overs on the board. I said that last year and got burned, but I’m sticking by my belief in this team. I have plenty of doubts about their playoff ceiling, but I think they should be able to get to 50 regular season wins.  

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