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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Washington Wizards - 24.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

Despite having the lowest win total line in the league, the Wizards have a decent amount of talent. They’re not putting out a bunch of unproven young players like most rebuilding teams, and that’s really how losses get racked up. Their projected starting five of Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, and Daniel Gafford all have shown they can contribute to winning in some form or another. They have other veterans in Delon Wright, Landry Shamet, Danillo Gallinari, and Mike Muscala who also have shown they belong in the league.

 

The Wizards could be this year’s version of the ’22-’23 Jazz – the team that everyone expects to tank but cobbles together enough random talent to be competitive.  

The Case for the Under

 

After trading away Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, the Wizards are believed to be in full rebuild mode, and could trade more players and really give more minutes to young guys like Bilal Coulibaly, Johnny Davis, Patrick Baldwin, Jr., and Ryan Rollins. They re-signed Kuzma and traded for Jones and Poole, but it’s unclear how much they value those guys or if they are just considered stopgap assets that were acquired to be moved at a later time.

 

Even with their current roster, the whole may not equal the sum of its parts, as everyone may be slightly overqualified in their roles. Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma may put up numbers but fail to really drive winning as the number one and two options. They don’t have a real leader or primary creator offensively, and their defensive talent is suspect. 

Conclusion

Someone will win in the low 20’s this year or even the teens, and the Wizards are as good a bet as anyone to do so. Their motivations seem to be to restart and build through the draft, and I think it’s likely we will see actions that support those goals. 

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