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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Utah Jazz - 35.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

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The Jazz won 37 games last year and had the point differential of a 39-win team, and that’s including a late stretch of games where they punted on the play-in and prioritized their draft pick. 
 

They have a lot of young players that should improve, with no significant age-related regression candidates, as Kelly Olynyk (31), and Jordan Clarkson (30) are their oldest rotation players. 
 

They added John Collins without losing anyone significant, so they upgraded from a talent perspective, at least compared to the post-deadline version of last year’s team. 

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The Case for the Under

 

They were really bad after trading Conley last season. Top-10 protected pick could cause them to tank late to keep it.
 

After drafting 3 first round picks, they could give those rookies a decent amount of playing time and focus more on development than winning.
 

Unless Walker Kessler can single-handedly carry this defense (24th last year), they should be pretty poor again defensively. 

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Conclusion

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​What kept this team alive last season was having an elite offense (they were top-3 until trading Conley), and I don’t really see that replicating this year. Their perimeter defense will likely be pretty bad again, even if Kris Dunn gets more minutes than expected. I’m also not quite sold on Markkanen as an All-Star going forward, and he isn’t exactly the creator/leading ball-handler that you would expect to be the primary option on a playoff team. I’m taking the under for the Jazz. 

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