NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Toronto Raptors - 36.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

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The Raptors had a point differential of a 45-win team last season. Does losing Fred VanVleet make them nine wins worse?

They will have a full year of Jakob Poeltl after trading for him near the deadline last season, and they could have a monster defense. Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent, Jr. are all in contract years and thus should be very motivated to have great seasons.

It’s possible that the team just needed a fresh start from a coaching perspective, despite losing one of the most well-regarded coaches in the league in Nick Nurse.

Scottie Barnes could make a leap into someone that is legitimately a future star. They could get something from Otto Porter, Jr., who missed all of last season.

The fact that they owe a top-6 protected pick to San Antonio could stop them from tanking near the end unless they start out really bad and try to retain that pick.

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The Case for the Under

This team could blow it up at any minute. After losing VanVleet for nothing this summer, they could trade Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby in fear of that happening again with either of them.

They didn’t adequately replace VanVleet, as Dennis Schroder had a good season last year but was nearly out of the league prior to that, so overall their talent is less than what is was last season. Their halfcourt offense could really struggle with overlapping skillsets, a lack of shooting, and no elite primary creator.

Nurse is one of the best coaches in the league, and new coach Darko Rajakovic is unproven, so there’s a risk that is a downgrade even if it was time for a change. 

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Conclusion

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This team just feels too talented to have a line this low, so I like the over. Especially on defense, it’s hard to picture this team not being above-average, so they only need a decent offense to beat this line. It’s certainly possible that they blow this team up, but the Raptors have typically not gone down that path even when the opportunities presented themselves.