top of page

NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

San Antonio Spurs - 29.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

The Spurs were better than their record, as they really tanked last year to improve their lottery odds, and it was worth it as they landed the first pick and Victor Wembenyama. Although most rookies, even the best ones, don’t help you win, there’s a chance that Wembenyama could be the exception. Particularly on defense, he should be able to anchor the middle and really help the Spurs on that end. 
 

They also have a lot of young guys that should be expected to improve in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan., Malaki Branham, and Blake Wesley. Vassell in particular could have a breakout year, and should play a lot more than the 38 games he played last season. 

The Case for the Under

 

Although they were better than the record last year, they weren’t that much better. They won 22 games and had the point differential of just a 19-win team. This line suggest they will be significantly better, and that will be hard to do. 
 

They could end up trading solid veterans on expiring contracts, such as Doug McDermott, Cedi Osman, and Zach Collins. Even if they don’t trade those guys, they will still likely be giving a lot of minutes to young players, and it’s simply hard to win that way. 
 

They just don’t have that high-level creator that can consistently create advantages. Devin Vassell has made strides in that regard, but I wouldn’t count on him to fill that role just yet. 

Conclusion

This is a clear under to me. As much as I believe in Wembenyama as a future star, I don’t think he’ll be able to turn this into a decent team as a rookie. This should be a slow build around Wembenyama, and I expect the Spurs to be near the bottom of the standings again. 

bottom of page