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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Sacramento Kings - 44.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

The Kings won 48 games last season, and it wasn’t due to clutch game luck as they also had the point differential of a 47-win team. From a talent perspective, they brought back their top eight rotation players, and adding Chris Duarte and Sasha Vezenkov, who should be slight upgrades compared to Terence Davis and Chimezie Metu at the ninth and tenth rotation spots. That continuity could lead to them having an elite offense again, as they had the best offense in the league last season
 

They don’t have any old players that you would expect to regress this season, as Harrison Barnes is their oldest rotation player at just 30 years old. Most of their rotation players are in their low-to-mid 30s and you would expect them to get better going forward. 

The Case for the Under

 

The Kings were insanely healthy last year, with the top eight players in their rotation playing 73 games or more last season. There’s virtually no chance they are able to repeat that, and could easily be significantly less healthy than last season. 
 

They snuck up on people a bit last season as one of the surprisingly good teams. Whether it’s just the Kings coming down to earth a little bit, or opponents being more prepared for them going forward, that could also lead to some regression this season. 
 

From a personnel perspective, I’m not sure they did anything to address their 25th ranked defense from last season. So unless they repeat as the best offense in the league again, having just as bad of a defense could bring them down overall from where they were last year.

Conclusion

This is one of the hardest picks on the board for me. The health is a big factor, and I’m concerned that not having the same injury luck this season will drag the Kings down. I also am just subjectively not sold on the Kings being a real western conference contender going forward. For that, I’m leaning under.

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