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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Portland Trailblazers - 28.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

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There’s some talent on this team after the Blazers traded away Damian Lillard this summer, returning some productive players in Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, and Deandre Ayton. Bringing those guys in alongside Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Matisse Thybulle gives the Blazers a decent group to supplement their young players like Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. 
 

Although young point guards often struggle early in their careers, Henderson could be an exception given he has already spent two seasons playing against pros during his time with the G-League ignite. 
 

Being in a new situation could allow Ayton to thrive, as his production has often been driven by his motivation/happiness, and getting a fresh start could get him locked in on defense and more aggressive on offense.

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The Case for the Under

 

This team is in rebuild mode, and will look to build around Henderson and Sharpe. Developing those players will be the focal point of the organization, rather than trying to win games now. They have already shown the willingness to throw away games late in the season to improve their draft pick, and could easily do so again if they are out of the play-in hunt. 
 

Veterans like Grant, Brogdon, and Williams could all be traded this season for draft picks, as it’s possible that none of them are in the long-term plans for the team and could help a team that is wanting to win now.
 

This is not a very deep team. After their top eight players (two of which are young developing guards in Henderson and Sharpe), they will be relying on borderline rotation players such as Kevin Knox or Moses Brown, or unproven young players such as Jabari Walker or rookies Kris Murray, Rayan Rupert, and Toumani Camara. 

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Conclusion

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While there is some talent on this team, some of it is overlapping talent with three point-guard sizes players and two centers. This team lacks some real depth, so if they suffer injuries or trade some of their veterans, they could be putting out some real rough lineups. They have shown the willingness in the past to prioritize their draft pick over trying to win meaningless spring games. For those reasons, I think this is an “under” bet. 

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