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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Phoenix Suns - 51.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

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They have some of the best top-talent in the league, which should carry them to a solid number of wins regardless of who else is on the roster. Having three stars means you can suffer an injury to one and not be toast during that period, and that’s important considering all three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal tend to miss games here and there for nagging injuries.
 

This team should be an elite offense based on talent alone. New coach Frank Vogel has had some very successful defensive teams, and could get them good enough on that end. 

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The Case for the Under

 

It is a weird fit among their three stars, as they all like to operate in the mid-range. There’s an ideal scenario where Beal transforms his game into more of an off-ball 3-point shooter, similar to what Ray Allen became when he joined the Celtics, but you there’s not a ton of evidence to support he’s willing to play that way. 
 

Despite doing very well in the minimum contract market, they still are relying on a bunch of minimum contract guys. I believe in Eric Gordon, but outside of him, at least a couple more players need to hit and become legitimately helpful rotation players, and I’m not super confident that will happen. 
 

Only four players that actually have a chance of playing return from last season, and two of them (Josh Okogie and Damian Lee) aren’t guaranteed to be in the rotation. There is a lack of continuity that could cause some growing pains to start the season. 
 

Who is going to defend on this team? Beal has been a very bad defender in recent seasons, and while there’s hope he can be better if he doesn’t have do to as much on offense, that’s far from guaranteed. Durant and Booker are both solid, but considering their offensive loads, shouldn’t be expected to be great defenders. Gordon has defended well in the past, but at 35 years old he may struggle if he has to stay in front of elite perimeter weapons. Jusuf Nurkic has not anchored very good defensive teams in his career, and has regressed in recent seasons since his broken leg suffered in 2019. Can Nassir Little or Okogie be good enough offensively to stay on the court and be go-to defenders? 

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Conclusion

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The Suns are a legitimate title contender, but they have a lot of questions going into the season that makes me question how many wins they will get in the regular season. Between the concerns about defense, depth, and health/fit concerns for their stars, I’m leaning under for the Suns. 

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