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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Oklahoma City Thunder - 44.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

The Thunder had the point differential of a 43-win team, so they only need slight improvement to hit this over. Their team is essentially all young players that are expected to improve. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could continue to make leaps, and may be the type of guy that can carry a team to the playoffs almost on his own. 
 

Chet Holmgren could plug in perfectly, giving the Thunder some much-needed rim protection on defense. On offense, he could provide spacing at the center position, allowing more open driving lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams. He also gives them a lob threat in pick-and-roll that they haven’t had recently. 

The Case for the Under

 

They were pretty healthy last year, with Dort, Giddey, and Jalen Williams all playing in 74 games or more. SGA even played a very solid 68 games. It’s unlikely that those four guys will be that healthy again. 
 

They will be relying on Chet Holmgren to anchor their defense. While I like his chances of being successful in the long run, he’ll still be a rookie, and rookies are rarely ever contributors to winning, especially on the defensive end. 
 

The Thunder got a little lucky last year, giving up a lot of corner 3s, but their opponents shot pretty poorly. They likely won’t get that level of shot luck again defensively. 
 

This team still needs some shooting around their talented young players, and now that they won't be sneaking up on teams as much, opponents might be more prepared to pack the paint against them.

Conclusion

They won 40 games last year with the point differential of a 43-win team, so they only need slight improvement to hit his over. However, the rest of the West should be better around them, and I wouldn’t be that surprised if they missed the playoffs. I think the Thunder could have a successful season and still finish under this number, so I like the under. 

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