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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

New York Knicks - 45.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

They won 47 games last year and had the point differential of a 49-win team. They have a ton of continuity, as they bring back essentially the same roster. The main difference was bringing in Donte DiVincenzo and losing Obi Toppin, which should be an upgrade, especially considering how Toppin was limited with this roster given that coach Tom Thibodeau wouldn’t play him at center and Julius Randle took up most of the power forward minutes. They will also have Josh Hart for a full season after trading for him in February of 2023.

 

Young players like RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes should continue to get better, with no players on the wrong side of the age curve.

 

They also could cash in on a big trade with all the picks they have. You don’t want to bet on that happening, but it should be factored when thinking about their potential upside. 

The Case for the Under

 

They were really healthy last year, with none of their top players missing significant time. Mitchell Robinson was the low mark at 59 games, but everyone else was in the 68-81 game range. It’s unlikely that will happen again.

 

Randle (and the Knicks overall, really) seems to fluctuate from bad season to good, as he was great in ’20-’21, really struggled in ’21-’22, and was very good again in ’22-’23.

 

Tom Thibodeau teams also sometimes just grow tired of him after several years, even if they are experiencing some success, and you never quite know when that will come.

 

Despite becoming more stable in recent years, the Knicks as a franchise overall have not been one to trust in this millennium, and they have a lot of fans that could drive up the win total line to more than what it should be. 

Conclusion

I don’t trust Randle to play as well as he did last year, and that could lead to the Knicks being a little too reliant on Jalen Brunson from a creation standpoint. They don’t have the best shooters to surround those two either. However, they just need to be about as good as they were last year, and I think they could actually do that or build on it. I'm slightly leaning over.

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