The Case for the Over

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They had the point differential of a 46-win team last season, and that was with some health struggles. They started out 23-12 and were near the top of the West at one point, showing how good they can be at full strength.  There’s a chance that they could get close to a full season of Zion Williamson healthy and be a top-4 seed in the West.
 

They have good continuity and a roster full of young guys that should improve. Brandon Ingram is still only 26 and Williamson is only 23. If any of Trey Murphy III (23), Herb Jones (25), Naji Marshall (25), Dyson Daniels (20), or Jose Alvarado (25) take a major leap, that would be huge for this team. 

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The Case for the Under

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Health will always be a question with this team, starting Zion Williamson, who has only played in 114 games over four seasons. They are already off to a rough start with Larry Nance, Alvarado, Murphy, and Marshall all dealing with small injuries. Those may end up being nothing in the grand scheme of the season, but sometimes a poor start due to injuries can derail a season quickly. 
 

This team doesn’t have much shooting, especially if Murphy is going to miss extended time. They need shooters around Ingram and Williamson, and most of their rotation wings are questionable shooters. 
 

C.J. McCollum had a slightly below-average season last year for his standards, and if his efficiency continues to drop or he struggles to create separation off the dribble at age 32, that could mean trouble for the Pelicans offensively. 

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Conclusion

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This team could go in a lot of directions, which makes them a difficult pick. While there is significant upside with this team, there’s also a lot of downside risk due to health. There’s also a chance that they are reasonably healthy but struggle to have enough spacing offensively. Or Williamson plays more games and brings down their defense that was 6th in the NBA last year. For those reasons, I’m leaning toward the under.