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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Milwaukee Bucks - 55.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

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The Bucks won 58 games last year and have pretty consistently been a win-generating machine in the playoffs over the last five seasons. 
 

They added Damian Lillard, and his pairing with Giannis Antetokounmpo could be the best duo in the league. Having Lillard could boost their offense into the top-5 after being 13th last season. If Brook Lopez and Antetokounmpo can anchor their defense and keep them in the top-5 on that end as well, this could be a regular season juggernaut. 
 

Khris Middleton only played 33 games last season due to injury, and never really got in a groove. If he has a healthy season and gets back to his borderline All-Star level play, that could make the Bucks better than they were last year. 

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The Case for the Under

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They lost a little bit of depth by trading two rotation players in Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen for Damian Lillard. They will be hoping that minimum-contract signings Malik Beasley and Cameron Payne will be able to fill those backcourt minutes well enough. 
 

In order to prepare more for the playoffs, the Bucks could give more minutes to young guys to both keep the starters fresh but also hopefully develop some of their young guys into players that they can actually trust in the playoffs. 
 

Adrian Griffin is a first-time head coach and is therefore a bit of an unknown despite having a good reputation. Mike Budenholzer had his flaws as a coach, but he has proven to be able to drive regular season winning. Griffin very well may be a better coach for this Bucks team, but it may not be the best bet to assume he’s going to produce more regular season wins.
 

Brook Lopez may have had his best season last year, as a legitimate defensive player of the year candidate. However, he’s 35 years old and could start to regress at any time. Lillard and Middleton are also in their 30’s, and this overall is an older team that could see some age-related regression from a number of players.  

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Conclusion

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This team has one of the highest over-under lines in the league, and for good reason. They have a duo that on paper fits as well as any duo in the league, and one of the most talented rosters in regards to top-end talent. However, there may be an adjustment period on both ends of the court by swapping Holiday with Lillard, and I expect this team to be more focused on the playoffs than the regular season. I like the under. 

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