top of page

NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Miami Heat - 45.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

The Heat had a pretty cold shooting season from outside last year, hitting under 35% from three, and there’s a chance that was just bad luck. I wouldn’t expect them to shoot as well as they did in the playoffs in their surprising 2023 Finals run, but I would be surprised if they shot this poorly again. 
 

They have some young guys that could breakout and become solid rotation players. Orlando Robinson has been solid in the G-League and could beat out Thomas Bryant for the back-up center minutes. Nikola Jovic looked good in FIBA play over the summer. Jaime Jazquez is an older rookie that has great basketball IQ and could play right away.  The Heat always seem to find rotation players out of nowhere.
 

They have arguably the best coach in the league in Erik Spoelstra. I’m not sure how many wins that’s worth, but he’s one of those guys you never feel great betting against. 
 

After missing out on Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday, they could still make a big trade to improve the roster.

The Case for the Under

The Heat only won 44 games last year, and had the point differential of just a 41-win team. From a talent perspective, they downgraded by losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent and only adding Josh Richardson and Thomas Bryant. They were also decently healthy last season, and have even less depth this year if they have worse injury luck this year. 
 

At 36 years old, Kyle Lowry is certainly a regression candidate, and they don’t have a great back-up option at this point. Expect Tyler Herro to play a lot of point guard. Jimmy Butler is also a player that almost always missing a decent chunk of games, and he’s entering his mid-30s also.
 

While they have some young guys that could improve, there’s not anyone you really expect to make significant strides, as they generally are an older roster with no high-level young talent. 

Conclusion

I just don’t trust the depth of this team, and it’s not like they have elite top-end talent either. If they start Lowry, Herro, Caleb Martin, Butler, and Bam Adebayo, that leaves Josh Richardson, Haywood Highsmith, Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love, and Thomas Bryant as their next five guys. When comparing this rotation to other East playoff teams, it’s pretty underwhelming, so I like the under. 

bottom of page