October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

​

The Grizzlies won 51 games last year and had the point differential of a 53-win team. They weren’t particularly healthy, with Ja Morant missing 21 games, Desmond Bane missing 24, and Steven Adams missing 39. It seems like no matter who the Grizzlies put out on the court, Taylor Jenkins has found a way to get those guys to win games. 
 

Desmond Bane continues to improve each year, and they don’t really have any candidates for regression. If just one or two of Zhaire Williams, Jake LaRavia, Santi Aldama, or David Roddy make a major leap, that could easily vault them over 50 wins.
 

Although losing Dillon Brooks hurts them defensively, it may help them offensively because of his poor shot selection and lack of great efficiency. Adding Marcus Smart could help replace that perimeter defense that Brooks added last year.

​

The Case for the Under

​

Morant will be suspended for the first 25 games, and there’s overall a bit of combustibility around his situation. In the past, the Grizzlies have been able to play well when Morant has missed time, but that was when they had Tyus Jones. They have lost some depth, as Smart is essentially going to be taking on the Jones and Brooks roles, which may be a lot to ask of him. 

​

With Adams now missing the entire season, and Brandon Clarke also expected to miss a majority of the season, the Grizzlies are really light on depth with their bigs. Jaren Jackson, Jr. will have to play a lot at center, and has struggled in that regard in the past.

​

They are a little small, as their best lineup has Morant, Smart, and Bane all playing together. Smart and Bane both play bigger than they are, but having positional size in the current NBA is a big deal. That is probably more of an issue in the playoffs than the regular season, but it could end up being a bigger problem expected. 

​

Conclusion

​

The Grizzlies have been a pretty safe "over" bet ever since Taylor Jenkins took over, and I don’t expect that to stop soon. I think this line is putting too much emphasis on the Morant suspension, and that the Grizzlies should be able to survive that fine enough. The statistical models like the Grizzlies to win 50+ games. I’m not sure I’m that confident in the Grizzlies, but they would have to take a significant step back from last season to not hit this over.