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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Los Angeles Lakers - 47.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

While they only won 43 games last season and had the point differential of a 42-win team, after the trade deadline the Lakers went 18-9 and had the point differential of a 52-win team. They then followed that up with a run to the conference finals. There’s hope that they are closer to that level of team than the overall product they put on the floor in ’22-’23.
 

They added a couple nice rotation players in Gabe Vincent and Taurean Prince, who should be an upgrade on the departed Dennis Schroder and Troy Brown. The other free agency signings (Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes, Cam Reddish) are minimum-contract flyers that will either exceed expectation or just not play very much, so I would be surprised if any of them actively hurt the Lakers. 
 

Austin Reaves continues to make strides, as he played well in the FIBA games over the summer. Max Christie showed some potential in summer league and could break into the rotation. 

The Case for the Under

The Lakers under is typically a successful bet, partly due to them having so many fans that drive the line up. They have gone under eight out of the last ten years. Lebron teams have also not historically done well against their over-under lines, as they tend to underperform in the regular season and overperform in the playoffs, which has been a fairly consistent trend for the past decade or so. 
 

Despite adding some solid depth, they are still really reliant on a someone who is about to turn 39 years old and a big man that has struggled to consistently stay healthy. If they get 120 combined games out of Lebron and AD, that will be a win.
 

Everyone seems to expect the Lakers to get the Gabe Vincent that was on fire in the 2023 playoffs, but what if they get the ’22-’23 regular season version of Vincent, who shot 34% from 3 on just 53% true shooting? That might be a downgrade from what Schroder provided last year for the Lakers. 
 

The Lakers were much better after trading for D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt last season, but they didn’t have the hardest schedule in that stretch. People are going to completely write off the bad start that the Lakers had to the ’22-’23 season, but they probably shouldn’t. 

Conclusion

Despite a conference finals run and an overall positive off-season, I still have some doubts about this team, primarily centered around the health of their two stars and the depth behind them. If Lebron misses time, their offense could really struggle without a high-level creator. If AD misses time, their defense could crater. There’s enough uncertainty here that makes me lean toward the under.

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