The Case for the Over

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Jabari Smith Jr. could make a leap after how he looked in summer league. Overall, they have a lot of young players that could be significantly better than last season, including Smith, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Tari Eason.  
 

They added a bunch of solid veterans in Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Reggie Bullock, Jeff Green, and Jock Landale that should fit in pretty well around their existing young core. 
 

Usman Garuba, Daishen Nix, TyTy Washington, and Josh Christopher all got real minutes for them last year, and none of them are even on standard NBA contracts anymore. Replacing those minutes with actual pros will be a significant upgrade. 
 

Ime Udoka should be a legitimate upgrade on former coach Stephen Silas. We already saw the success he had in Boston, leading them to the Finals in his lone season in ’21-’22.  
 

They owe their first round pick to Oklahoma City unless it lands in the top-4, so they won’t have any incentive to tank unless they are really near the bottom. 

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The Case for the Under

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They won 22 games last season and only had the point differential of a 21-win team, so they have a lot of ground to make up in order to hit this over. 
 

They have an overall lack of shooting, which could hurt their spacing and their offense overall. 
 

A lot of their players are still overmatched in their roles. If Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green are their number one and two options, that is likely near the bottom of the league when compared to the best two players of other teams. 
 

They will still likely give a lot of minutes to young guys, who normally do not drive winning. 
 

Even if they are giving away their pick, they may just play young guys for developmental reasons (rather than tanking reasons) late in the season if they are outside of the play-in mix. 

 

Conclusion

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This one is really close for me. I think they are talented enough to hit this over, but I’m wondering if gravity and the steep competition in the west will just bring them down below this number. If I knew how many minutes were going to veterans versus younger players, I would feel much better about this number. Overall, I think the Rockets want to show significant progress at this point, as shown by what they valued in free agency, so I’m going with the over.