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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Denver Nuggets - 52.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. were coming back from serious injuries last season, and had a little bit of rust to knock off. This year, they could come in fully ready to go and play even better than last year. Murray in particular has never made an All-Star team, or really ever been in close consideration. He could definitely have an All-Star season, and could even have an All-NBA season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (30) is their oldest sure-fire rotation player (Reggie Jackson is 32), so they don’t have any real regression candidates from an age perspective.


While there is some concern about losing Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, the bench was bad in the regular season anyway, and they were still able to win 53 games. There’s a chance that some of their young guys like Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, or Payton Watson could step into bench roles adequately. 
 

They probably could have won more than 53 games last season, but they took their foot off the gas near the end as they had the top seed in the West locked down, going 7-10 in their last 17 games. 

The Case for the Under

As with other contending teams or teams that are more focused on the playoffs than the regular season, they could rest guys more or focus more on experimentation and development rather than maximizing regular season wins. They could play younger players more in hopes of getting them ready for the playoffs, as they will need someone to fill the 7th-9th man roles come playoff time. They could experiment with different lineups or schemes in order to be more versatile in the playoffs. Especially since they had a shorter summer after playing until June, they could take the regular season a little bit easier in order to be fresh for the playoffs again.
 

Although they won 53 games last season, they only had the point differential of a 50-win team. Especially after losing Bruce Brown, they are probably less talented from a roster perspective. It’s fairly easy to see them taking a slight step back and winning in the high 40s.
 

If some of their young guys don’t pop or veterans like Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday don’t provide good play, their bench lineups could be bad enough to really bring them down.   

Conclusion

I still believe in the Nuggets as being a title contender, and probably still the favorite to come out of the West. However, after losing some depth, having a shorter summer, and likely being more focused on the playoffs than the regular season, I am just slightly leaning under on this team.

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