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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Dallas Mavericks - 45.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

The Mavericks could easily have a top-5 offense. They were elite on that end when Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played together last season, and they are both healthy and ready to go going to this season.  
 

They were better than their 38-44 record last season, as they did a pretty blatant tank job near the end in order to retain their top-10 protected pick. They also had the point differential of a 42-win team.
 

They added some talent in the off-season in Grant Williams and Seth Curry, who both should be solid rotation players. 

The Case for the Under

 

Jason Kidd has built a pattern of success in his first year as coach, and then things falling off from there. He did it in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and now it’s looking to be that way in Dallas after they made the Conference Finals in 2022 but missed the play-in last year. 
 

There’s always some uncertainty with Irving, whether it’s just bad health or some other reason, but he always seems to miss a bunch of games. 
 

They were 23rd in defense last year, and they could be really bad again. They are essentially relying on improvement coming from adding Williams or their two rookies in Dereck Lively and Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Their guards are particularly bad defensively, outside of Dante Exum.  
 

They have some guys I like, but not in their current roles. I like Grant Williams, but not sure how much I like him as your third best player. They have a bunch of solid 8th man level players in their 3rd-10th spots. 

Conclusion

It’s possible that Doncic and Irving are good enough to carry this team above this win total. However, there are just too many factors noted above that give me pause about this team, so I like the under.

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