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NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins 

Charlotte Hornets - 31.5 wins

October 22, 2023

The Case for the Over

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They won 43 games two seasons ago and had a point differential of a 44 win team, and with Miles Bridges (possibly) back and a presumably healthy LaMelo Ball, this team should look more like that team than last season’s team. They got off to a rough start last season and things just went bad fast.

 

Mark Williams showed some real flashes of rim protection and as the potential to grow into a true defensive anchor.

 

They don’t have any older guys that you would expect to regress, other than maybe Gordan Hayward. 

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The Case for the Under

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They dropped from 6th in offense two seasons ago to the worst offense in the league last season after hiring Steve Clifford, who is more of a defensive-minded coach. That can’t be all on Clifford, as the Hornets were much less healthy and overall less talented than the ’21-’22 version, but it’s possible their offense continues to struggle. Their defense also didn’t improve, staying at 20th the last two seasons.

 

After having a breakout year in ’21-’22, there’s come uncertainty around if Bridges can pick up where he left out after sitting out an entire year, and recently his legal issues came to the front again, opening some questions about his availability at all this season.

 

Depending on how many minutes they give to young guys like Brandon Miller, James Bouknight, Nick Smith, and Bryce McGowens, that could hurt them in the win column if those guys are not ready or don’t develop quickly. They have some questions at back-up point guard. If they are not in the play-in race, they could tank near the end of the season. 

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Conclusion

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On paper, this team looks closer to the ’21-’22 version of themselves than last year’s version, and the over-under line doesn’t really reflect that. I don’t expect the Hornets to win 40+ games, but I would actually be less surprised if they did that than if they won less than 25, and think the line is just too low here. 

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