Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
NBA Over/Under Regular Season Wins
Boston Celtics - 54.5 wins
October 22, 2023
The Case for the Over
The Celtics won 57 games last year and had an equivalent point differential. They upgraded the roster from a talent perspective, adding Kristaps Porzingis, who is coming off probably his best season last year, along with Jrue Holiday. Porzingis can provide some rim protection while allowing the Celtics to have no non-shooters on the floor. Porzingis and Al Horford can both stretch the floor, allowing the Celtics to play 5-out lineups that could open up more driving lanes for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown while still being big enough to defend well.
Joe Mazzulla will have a full off-season and training camp, as compared to last season when he was thrust into the head coaching role in late September. The Celtics also bolstered their coaching staff, adding Charles Lee and Sam Cassell.
The addition of Jrue Holiday should fill any defensive holes created by losing Marcus Smart. Even elevating Derrick White to a starting position might do that already, as White is not the on-ball defender that Smart is, but he might be a better overall defender considering his elite rim protection for a guard. He also might be less erratic on offense. The Celtics biggest issues has been their offensive execution late in games, and Smart was often part of that problem.
Tatum and Brown continue to improve each year. If Tatum becomes someone that is a true MVP candidate and in consideration for best player in the world, that would take the Celtics to another level.
The Case for the Under
They weren’t the deepest team last season, and after losing four proven rotation players in Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams and really only adding two in Holiday and Porzingis, they are even more shallow. Outside of their top six guys, who do you really trust? Can Payton Pritchard work his way back into being a regular contributor? Can Sam Hauser defend well enough to stay on the court? Can rookie Jordan Walsh make an impact? I liked some of their minimum signings, but can any of Oshae Brissett, Dalano Banton, Lamar Stevens, or Svi Mykhailiuk be good enough to get real playing time for a team trying to win a championship? If a player or two misses time, you could really be relying on guys that haven’t yet proven they contribute to winning.
Of the Celtics’ two rotation bigs, one has an injury history and one is 37 years old. If either of those players miss significant time, they could be pretty thin at that position. They can slide Tatum to power forward and play smaller lineups, but their backcourt depth isn’t that strong either, as noted above. White played all 82 games last year, so he won’t be that healthy again.
They could really miss Marcus Smart, both from an on-court and off-court perspective. He’s one of those “heart and soul of the team” guys. Defensively, the Celtics have been very switchable in recent years, and having a bunch of guards and wings that can switch and defend multiple position has been a big part of their successful defense. That identity changes a bit by swapping Smart for Porzingis, as they will undoubtedly play more traditional defense and keep Porzingis dropping in pick-and-roll coverage. It’s an adjustment that could have negative impacts, particularly early on in the season, even if they have one of the best in the world to navigate screens on the perimeter in Holiday.
Conclusion
Overall they still have pretty good continuity with four of their top six players, and outside of Horford they don’t have any big regression candidates. Holiday and Porzingis are pretty malleable players that can fit in around the current stars. The Celtics are title favorites and have the highest over-under win total for a reason, and it’s not even super high compared to past years. There are some questions around health, depth, and the fit of Porzingis, but I trust this team to figure those out well enough to be a very good team. Vegas is continuing to project more parity, but if you’re going to bet on one team getting close to 60 wins, it’s probably the Celtics.