Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
2025 Free Agents - Terry Rozier
During his time in Charlotte, Rozier was a 20 point scorer, which doesn't mean as much as it did 15 years ago but is still something, on about average efficiency (55.5% true shooting). He takes a lot of midrange shots but he's pretty effective from there, at least enough to be somewhat efficient. He has enough off-the-dribble ability to get his jumper off in isolation situations, which is a legitimate skill that can be helpful against a good defense or if the offense stalls out and you need someone to create something late in the shot clock. Rozier is a solid 3-point shooter at just over 36%, but has really struggled to finish at the rim. He doesn't have a ton of vertical explosion, and hasn't developed a ton of craft to finish around defenders in the paint. Ideally, in more of an off-ball, role player-esque situation, you would hope Rozier could hit closer to 40% from 3. He posts okay assist numbers for a combo guard, but overall isn't someone that will create for others and make high-level passes. If he's your starting point guard, you would certainly hope to have an elite passer at the wing position. Defensively, Rozier is undersized at 6'2" but has enough length to guard multiple positions. He showed some real defensive potential during his early years in Boston, but hasn't been very good since then. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that his defense can improve if he has less of a burden to carry on offense. He is already 31 years old though, so hoping for significant change may not be smart either. He contributed to a good Heat defense in '24-'25, but overall isn't a difference-maker on that end, and really struggled offensively this season. Rozier's best role at this point in his career is probably as a scorer off the bench. However, it's also not out of the question for him to have a role similar to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as a 3-and-D guard, and I think that's more of what the Heat were hoping for when they traded a first round pick for him in 2024. Because his contract is very heavily guaranteed, I would be surprised if he actually hit free agency in 2025, and thus he will probably hit free agency in 2026 instead.
Summary
Rozier's $26.6 million salary for 2024-2025 is only $24.9 million guaranteed, and if he is waived he will become an unrestricted free agent and the Heat will have no form of Bird rights on him. If Rozier becomes a free agent, his value will have likely dropped enough that other teams will have multiple ways to sign him as even teams without cap space could use either the Non-Taxpayer MLE or possibly the Room MLE, Taxpayer MLE, or Bi-Annual Exception to sign him.
Cap Considerations
Jordan Clarkson (3 years $55 million, 2023) Anfernee Simons (4 years, $100 million, 2022) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2+1 years, $66 million, 2024)