top of page
image.png

2025 Free Agents - Luke Kennard

Kennard provides most of his value as a shooter. He has never shot less than 40% from 3 in a season, and has shot an elite 43% or better each of the past five seasons. He has a really smooth stroke, and can hit open spot-ups or jumpers on the move. He isn't a primary creator, but has enough ball-handling ability to create some space for jumpers, or at least attack a hard closeout or come off a screen and make one or two dribbles before making a play. While he's an effective midrange shooter, he has improved his efficiency in recent years by replacing some of those attempts for more 3-pointers (although his midrange frequency bumped back up a bit in '24-'25). He posted a career high 68% true shooting in '22-'23, and it was still above-average the past two seasons at 63%-64%. Outside of shooting, Kennard doesn't bring much else to the table.He finishes decently at the rim, but doesn't have the burst or athleticism to finish inside. Kennard also isn't much of a play-making for others, posting low assist rates.  Defensively, Kennard is well below-average. He's probably good enough to stay in a regular rotation during the regular season, but he definitely won't improve a team's defense, and can be a liability when the games matter the most. We saw that a bit in the 2021 playoffs with the Clippers, as Kennard's minutes dropped in order to give more minutes to two-way guys like Terrance Mann and Nic Batum, among others. He isn't very big for a wing at 6'5", and doesn't have a long wingspan. Overall he just struggles as a one-on-one defender because he is not that quick laterally. Kennard also posts very low steal and block rates.  Kennard will be 29 years old as a free agent in 2025, so there's a chance he could show some age-related regression on the back-end of a long-term contract, but I don't think that will be a huge worry for teams at this point, as frankly he hasn't played well enough to earn a long-term contract anyway.

Summary

Kennard will be an unrestricted free agent with a $17.6 million cap hold and full Bird rights. Since his cap hold exceeds the starting salary he will get in free agency, his cap hold is not really relevant, as the Grizzlies will either let him walk away in free agency, or they will re-sign him and his new salary will replace his cap hold. Depending on how close the Grizzlies are to the luxury tax after free agency - or how much cap space they need if they operate under the cap - if Kennard is brought back by the Grizzlies on a multi-year contract they could benefit from frontloading his contract, as it could give them additional flexibility in the future. For other teams, if Kennard demands a starting salary of more than the full $14.1 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, only teams with cap space will be able to sign him, unless a sign-and-trade is worked out. However, it's likely that Kennard could be had for the full MLE or less, including maybe the $5.7 million Taxpayer MLE, which would make him available to almost every team. It's also possible he only gets minimum offers.

Cap Considerations

Buddy Hield (4 years, $36 million, 2024) Isaiah Joe (4-1 years, $48 million, 2024) Simone Fontecchio (2 year, $16 million, 2024)

Player/Contract Comparison

Potential Teams: Spurs, Grizzlies, Lakers, Pistons, Nuggets

Predicted Contract: 2-year, $16 million with the Spurs

Actual Contract: 1-year, $11 million with the Hawks

Kennard got a little bit more than I expected, but on a shorter contract, and gives the Hawks some additional shooting.

Last updated: 7/1/2025

bottom of page