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2022 Free Agents - Mikal Bridges

Summary
Since entering the league in 2018, Bridges has made significant improvements each season, and now has become one of the better "3-and-D" wings in the NBA. He has finished well at the rim each of his three seasons in the league, but his 43% three point percentage in '20-'21 made him one of the most efficient players in the league. His points per shot attempt (PSA) was right near the top of the league at 135.1,  as the only players above him that played more than 300 minutes were Stephen Curry, Tony Snell, and De'Andre Jordan, according to Cleaning the Glass. Even if that level of shooting is unsustainable (his career average is 38%), if he can stay in the high 30's he will continue to be a legitimate threat from outside.

In order to take another leap into All-Star territory, Bridges would need to develop more of an off-the-dribble game, since he's largely a dependent player on offense. 85% of Bridges's made field goals in '20-'21 season were assisted, and 99% of his threes were assisted, and those numbers are right in line with the first two seasons of his career as well. Part of that is because of the role he's asked to play, and that Chris Paul and Devin Booker carry so much of the play-making load for the Suns. If Bridges can make strides in his ability to create his own shot, similar to what someone like Jaylen Brown has done, he could vault take another big leap.

On defense, Bridges has the potential to make All-Defense teams going forward. He received the most votes in '20-'21 for anyone that did not make one of the two All-Defense teams. He has the length and quickness to defense multiple positions, and his steal and block rate have consistently been good to great. He can stay in front of his defender when playing on the ball, and is disruptive as a help defender as well. I wasn't sure if Bridges would have the strength to defend Lebron James when the Suns matched up against the Lakers in the playoffs, but he largely held his own in this regard.

Bridges is slightly on the older side for someone with his experience. As a free agent in 2022, Bridges will be going into his age-26 season, so it's likely that his next contract could take him through his prime. 
 
Cap Considerations
Bridges will be a restricted free agent with a $16.7 million cap hold and a $7.6 million Qualifying Offer. Bridges's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Suns or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Bridges settling for the QO is near certain not to happen. If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Since the Suns will not have cap room, Bridges's cap hold will not play a factor.

For other teams, Bridges will be looking for a 4-year, $80+ million offer sheet, and it would likely take something near the 4-year, $100+ million range in order for Phoenix to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more punitive for Phoenix to match.

Potential Teams: Suns, Pelicans, Magic, Spurs, Hornets

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $100 million with the Suns

Actual Contract: 4-year, $90 million with the Suns

Bridges ended up signing an extension prior to the start of the regular season, and got close to the value that I expected him to get.

Last updated: 10/19/2021

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