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Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
2022 Free Agents - Daniel Gafford
Summary
During his freshman season at Arkansas, some considered Gafford as a mid-first round pick. However, Gafford returned to school for his sophomore year, and ended up being drafted in the second round in 2019. So far, Gafford appears to be a decent option as a backup center, and after being traded to the Wizards he has shown that he even has some upside as a potential starter.
He finishes really well at the rim, which has led him to being in the 96th percentile in eFG% for his position, per Cleaning the Glass. He has the athleticism to be a lob threat on offense and rim protector on defense. He still needs to develop his feel to really be a true impact defender though, as positional awareness and discipline are more important than athleticism.
On offense, Gafford could benefit from developing his jumper or his post moves, but he doesn't necessarily need to do that to be an impact player, as plenty of bigs can be impactful just as lob threats. However, in a heavy pick-and-roll league, if Gafford can develop his short roll game, that could make him into a starting-level center. The ability to catch a pass on the roll and make one move either to the basket or make the right pass to the open shooter would be huge for Gafford.
Cap Considerations
Gafford has a $1.9 million team option for 2022-2023, and the Wizards might decline this option to make Gafford a restricted free agent in 2022, rather than picking up the option and having Gafford hit unrestricted free agency in 2023. If the Wizards take this approach, Gafford will be a restricted free agent with a $2.3 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer.
If Gafford starts 41 games or plays 2,000 during the regular season, his QO would raise to $4.9 million. Gafford's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Wizards or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Gafford settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.
If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. However, since the Wizards will be over the cap if Beal re-signs, so they will only be able to take advantage of Gafford's low cap hold if Beal leaves.
I would expect the Wizards to decide that they would rather keep Gafford on a minimum contract for another year, even though they could risk losing Gafford to unrestricted free agency in 2023.
For other teams, Gafford will be looking for a contract in the $10+ million per year range as a restricted free agent, and it would likely take something near that in order for Washington to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for the Wizards to match.
Potential Teams: Raptors, Hornets, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Grizzlies
Predicted Contract: Opt-In: $1.9 million
If opt out: 4-year, $48 million with the Wizards
Actual Contract: Opt-In: $1.9 million + 3-year, $40.2 million extension
Gafford ended up signing an extension that starts in '23-'24, and thought he got solid value at slightly above the amount I projected him for on a per-year basis.
Last updated: 10/19/2021
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