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2022 Free Agents - Luguentz Dort

Summary
Dort was one of the surprising players of the '19-'20 season. After going undrafted in 2019, Dort signed a two-way contract with the Thunder and played well enough to eventually get a multi-year deal. He earned a reputation early of having great defensive potential, particularly due to his strength and footwork as an an on-ball defender. Dort is only listed at 6'4" but he has a decently long wingspan and has the strength to guard some of the bigger wings in the league.

Dort had some prominent moments in the 2020 playoffs, including a 30-point performance in the Thunder's game 7 loss to Houston. However, it should be noted that although he shot 6/12 from three in that game, he was 7/38 in the first six games, and not much better from two point range.

During the '20-'21 season, especially near the back half of the season with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford out, Dort was given the freedom to explore his offensive abilities. He has been given the green light from outside, as he has attempted over six threes per game over the last two seasons. He hit those at a decent rate of 34%, a 4% improvement from his rookie season.

His shot still doesn't look great, so it's unclear if he can really become an average shooter on high volume. I could see him improving to the level of someone like Marcus Smart, another defense-first player, but I would be surprised if he become a better shooter than that. If he can shoot well enough (and often enough) to keep defenses honest, it will make it much easier for him to survive on offense while doing what he does best at the defensive end. He shoots well from the corners, and in a different role he may take fewer non-corner threes.

Over the past couple seasons Dort has also developed his off-the-dribble game more. He can attack off the catch and will sometime show some nice footwork around the rim. However, it still hasn't translated to him being an efficient finisher, as he's still in bottom fifth in the league in field goal percentage at the rim for his position, according to Cleaning the Glass. Too often he'll be out of control or just try to muscle his way to the rim, and end up throwing up a tough runner off the backboard. 
 
Cap Considerations
Dort has a $1.9 million team option for 2022-2023, and the Thunder might decline this option to make Dort a restricted free agent in 2022, rather than picking up the option and having Dort hit unrestricted free agency in 2023. Therefore, Dort will be a restricted free agent with a $4.9 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer. Dort's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Thunder or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Dort settling for the QO is near certain not to happen.

Since Dort will have a low cap hold, the Thunder could take advantage of this by keeping his cap hold on the books, using their cap space to sign free-agents, then using Bird Rights to re-sign Dort once their cap space has been used up. If they agree to terms with Dort, they could also rescind his QO, thus lowering his cap hold and giving the Thunder more cap space, before re-signing him. However, those scenarios are unlikely as the Thunder will most likely operate over the cap.

Alternatively, the Thunder could exercise the option on Dort's '22-'23 season and extend him at a later date. The extension would begin in 2023 and could have a starting salary of 120% of the estimated league average salary (roughly $13 million). I actually think this is the most likely scenario, but if Dort wants a raise earlier than that he could try to put pressure on the Thunder by telling them he won't extend and will leave in 2023 as an unrestricted free agent if they opt in for '22-'23.

For other teams, Dort will be looking for a contract around 4-year, $50 million or more if he is a free agent, and it would likely take something near that in order for Oklahoma City to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for the Thunder to match.

Potential Teams: Thunder, Kings, Spurs, Wizards, Pelicans

Predicted Contract: Opt-In: $1.9 million
Extension: 4-year, $52 million with the Thunder

Actual Contract: 5-year, $82.5 million (5th year team option), $1 million per year in additional unlikely incentives, with the Thunder

The Thunder ended up opting-out on Dort's contract for '22-'23, and re-signing him to a sizeable deal. This is definitely more than I expected, but think it's still solid value for a starting-level wing.

Last updated: 7/10/2022

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