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2022 Free Agents - Wendell Carter, Jr.

Summary
Carter has had a bit of an up-and-down career so far. After showing some promising signs early, he seemed to lose some confidence, and struggled near the end of this time in Chicago. Now with the Magic, Carter will look to prove he can be a solid starting center.

Carter has shown passing ability from the elbows. He can stretch the floor, but hasn't proven he's an actual threat from outside yet. I would expect Carter to shoot more threes in '21-'22, as he has been below one attempt per game thus far in his career. He has nice touch, but hasn't converted that into efficient scoring yet, finishing below-average in eFG% each of his first three seasons, according to Cleaning the Glass..

Carter rebounds well, and has shown some rim protection ability, but certainly is not elite on the defensive end. He has potential to be a rim-protecting center that can also hold his own on the perimeter. Even if he doesn't become elite at either of those aspects, if he can do both of those while continuing to develop his positional awareness, he could become a very good defensive anchor.

I have hope that Carter can become an above-average starting center, but there's also a chance that he ends up becoming just a solid backup.
 
Cap Considerations
Carter will be a restricted free agent with a $20.8 million cap hold and full Bird rights. Carter will likely meet the starter criteria, making his Qualifying Offer $9.3 million. If Carter starts fewer than 33 games and plays less than 2,000 minutes in the regular season, his QO would drop to $7.2 million. I wouldn't expect Carter's QO to come into play, but I wouldn't completely rule it out since it could be close to his market value.

From other teams, Carter will be looking for a 4-year, $50+ million offer, and it would likely take something near that in order for Orlando to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Orlando to match.

Potential Teams: Magic, Spurs, Pelicans, Hornets, Raptors

Predicted Contract: 3-year, $35 million with the Magic

Actual Contract: 4-year, $50 million with the Magic

Carter ended up signing an extension prior to the '21-'22 season, and got a solid offer for slightly more than I projected.

Last updated: 10/16/2021

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