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Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
Last updated: 9/30/2019
2022 Free Agents - Mo Bamba
Summary
Going into the '21-'22 season, Bamba's NBA career was in jeopardy. He hadn't shown much progression through his first three seasons, and the Orlando Magic had just extended their new starting center, Wendell Carter, Jr. However, Bamba has shown real development in '21-'22, and is an intriguing player going forward.
Due to his length, Bamba has potential to be a great rim protector. He has a high block rate, but he hasn't become a consistent presence inside on defense. While he has made some strides this season in being a more disciplined defender, he needs to continue that progression to become a true starting-level player.
Bamba's outside shooting is starting to improve as well. Coming into the 2018 draft, Bamba showed potential as a unicorn big that could be a lob threat while also having the skills to stretch the defense. He shot 38% from three in '21-'22, and can provide value as a pick-and-pop threat. While he is a lob threat on offense, and finishes decently at the rim, he needs to improve his ability to make plays operating as the roll man in pick-and-roll, particularly when he has to make plays in the short roll by either taking one dribble and getting to the rim or finding the open shooter when the defense collapses. He also takes more midrange jumpers than he should, as 21% of his attempts came from there in '21-'22, but he only hit them at 33%, which is causing his overall eFG% to be below-average for a big, according to Cleaning the Glass.
While he has had a bit of a breakout season, it's unclear what role Bamba will play on the rebuilding Magic. He has played next to Wendell Carter, Jr. at times, but that doesn't seem like a great pairing going forward, and Jonathan Isaac should return and start at the power forward at some point. If the league just sees Bamba as a backup center, he may struggle in free agency, even though he has yet to turn 24 years old.
Cap Considerations
Bamba will be a restricted free agent with a $22.7 million cap hold, $10.1 million Qualifying Offer and full Bird rights. The Magic may refuse to tender him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent. With Bamba's QO being on the higher end, I think there is a possibility this occurs, and it's also possible that Bamba ends up signing the QO if he can't find a great offer sheet as a restricted free agent.
If a player has a smaller cap hold than his starting salary, his team can use cap space to sign-free agents before using Bird Rights to re-sign its own free agents. Unfortunately for the Magic, Bamba's cap hold is large enough that they won't be able to take advantage of this rule. If the Magic re-sign Bamba, they could benefit from front-loading his contract, which could give them more flexibility in the future, although it would cut into their cap space for 2022.
For other teams, Bamba will be looking for something in the 4-year, $50 million range, and it would likely take something over that in order for Orlando to not match. Therefore, he will be looking for teams with cap space first. However, a 4-year offer sheet for the full MLE (4-years, $44.5 million) could be enough to obtain Bamba, so teams without cap space also could get in the mix. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more difficult for Orlando to match.
Potential Teams: Magic, Timberwolves, Thunder, Raptors, Pistons
Predicted Contract: 3-year, $35 million with the Magic
Actual Contract: 2-year, $20.6 million (2nd year non-guaranteed)with the Magic
Bamba didn't do quite as well as I predicted, but still got in the low 10-figure per year range.
Last updated: 7/10/2022
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