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2022 Free Agents - Deandre Ayton

Summary
After a disappointing rookie season, Ayton got off to a bad start in his second season as well, getting suspended 25 games for violating the league's anti-drug policies. However, Ayton made strides during the latter part of his second season, and continued to do so throughout the '20-'21 season, particularly in the playoffs during the Suns' run to the Finals. Ayton continued to make slight improvements in '21-'22, becoming slightly more efficient, expanding his offensive game a bit, and continuing to hone his defensive skills. 

On defense, Ayton has developed from someone that looked like he had no idea where to be during his rookie year to a legitimately solid defender. He has even shown some potential that he could be more than solid. I'm not sure if he'll ever be an elite rim protector, but he could be in that next tier down (Clint Capela could be a good barometer). He also has the ability to switch on the perimeter a little bit, at least in late-clock situations.

Ayton is still a pretty dependent player on offense, living mostly off of dump-offs and rolls to the rim. He likely won't be someone that you run offense through in the way that you would through Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic, but he can be between that level and the more-dependent bigs like Rudy Gobert since he has the skills to take advantage of smaller defenders.

Even when the Clippers went small in the 2021 playoffs, Ayton wasn't doing a ton of damage off post-ups, as he was mostly still thriving off cuts and putbacks, but has the skills to get a decent shot off when he gets the ball in the post. He has a nice face-up midrange game, as he hit 56% from midrange in '21-'22, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Ayton could still play with a little more force on both ends, using his size and athleticism to have more of an impact inside. He has really nice touch, and could potentially expand his range in the future, as he's already starting to take an occasional three pointer. Ayton may not have superstar potential, but he has shown All-Star potential, and that's usually enough to get a max contract or really close to it.
 
Cap Considerations
Ayton will be a restricted free agent with a $29.8 million cap hold and a $16 million Qualifying Offer. Ayton's QO will almost certainly not come into play, as he will either sign a large contract with the Suns or get a large offer sheet from another team, so Ayton settling for the QO is near certain not to happen. The Suns can offer Ayton his max of 5-years, $176.9 million, and he will likely demand close to that as a restricted free agent.

For other teams, Ayton will be looking for a 4-year, $131.2 million max offer, or likely at least something over $100 million, and it would likely take something near the max in order for Phoenix to not match. In addition, adding a 15% trade bonus, a player option, and some advances on his salary could make it more punitive for Phoenix to match.

Potential Teams: Suns, Pacers, Pistons, Spurs, Trailblazers

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $125 million with the Suns

Actual Contract: 4-year, $132.9 million with the Suns

Ayton signed a 4-year max offer sheet with the Pacers, which the Suns matched. Interestingly, Ayton did not get some of the bells and whistles that he could have gotten (player option, trade bonus, advanced salary, etc.)

Last updated: 7/15/2022

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