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Summary
There's not a great history of guys signing for the full four-year Mid-Level Exception and maintaining their value over the remainder of that contract, but the four-year, $32 million contract Tucker signed in 2016 was certainly a bargain. Tucker became a specialist on offense in Houston, making his living hitting spotup corner 3s at a good rate. However, he really struggled to hit shots for the Bucks but was still able to make an impact by rebounding and playing defense.

Tucker is strong enough to battle with guys much bigger than him, which is one of the main reasons the Rockets were comfortable trading Clint Capela and starting Tucker at center, and also why the Bucks saw him as a someone that could close games at center. You probably don't want Tucker playing center full-time, but he's certainly capable of doing so, which gives his team options when considering closing lineups.

Teams that are set at the starting center position but could use a reliable backup should be interested in Tucker. Tucker could play alongside this center in bigger lineups but play as the backup center in the few minutes that he rests.
 
Cap Considerations
Tucker will be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights. As his cap hold ($15.1 million) exceeds the salary he will get in free agency, his cap hold is not really relevant. If the Bucks re-sign Tucker, his cap hold will be replaced by his starting salary, and they would not have cap space even if they let Tucker walk away. Therefore, Tucker could have some leverage in free agency this summer.

The luxury tax could come into play, as re-signing Tucker could push the Bucks deep into the luxury tax. Therefore, other teams will have a legitimate shot at signing Tucker away from Milwaukee without having to make him a huge offer.

Other teams will have multiple ways to sign Tucker as even teams without cap space could possibly use either of the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Taxpayer MLE, or possibly even the Room MLE to sign him.

At age 36, Tucker would be subject to the Over-38 rule, making it more complicated for him to sign a long-term deal. However, due to his age I wouldn't expect him to get long-term offers anyway.

Potential Teams: Bucks, Heat, Lakers, 76ers, Hawks

Predicted Contract: 2-year, $15 million with the Bucks

Actual Contract: 2-year, $14.4 million (player option) with the Heat

Tucker signed a similar contract to what I predicted, and I thought the Heat could be a target for him, but I was surprised that it didn't take more money in order to pry him from Milwaukee.

Last updated: 8/19/2021

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