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Summary
Trent really broke out in his second season during '19-'20, establishing himself as a legitimate NBA wing. Trent's eFG% was a great 58.5% that season, led mostly by his 43% shooting from 3, but he was also above average from every other part of the court as well, according to Cleaning the Glass. Trent's outside shooting has dipped a bit, as he hit 39% of his threes and did not finish quite as well at the rim. Some of that was due to Trent taking more difficult shots after being traded to the Raptors.

If Trent were a little bit bigger you'd feel better about him developing into an elite 3-and-D wing, but I think it's somewhat telling that the Trailblazers prioritized defensive forwards in Robert Covington and Derrick Jones, Jr. last offseason. Trent was slightly overmatched by being Portland's best option for defending the best opposing wing. That's probably fine at the end of the day, but does limit Trent's ceiling a bit. I could see him in a Danny Green-like role where he's often tasked with guarding the second-best wing, while being best-served to guard down a position rather than up.

Trent will be finishing a 3-year minimum deal, so he will be looking for his first big NBA contract. I expect someone to give him $10+ million a year on a three or four year deal.
 
Cap Considerations
Trent will be a restricted free agent with full Bird rights and a $4.7 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer. Having a low cap hold and full Bird rights could be beneficial for the Raptors, as they can keep Trent's cap hold on the books, use cap space to sign free agents, and then re-sign Trent once they have used up all their cap space. However, that point may be moot if the Raptors re-sign Kyle Lowry and operate over the salary cap.

There's also the scenario where Trent gets so expensive that re-signing him puts the Raptors into the luxury tax, which could make him obtainable with a sizeable offer sheet.

Trent will demand a starting salary of more than the full $9.5 million Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which means only teams with cap space will be able to sign him. If Trent and an over-the-cap team have mutual interest, sign-and-trade options can be explored.

Potential Teams: Raptors, Knicks, Grizzlies, Hornets, Mavericks

Predicted Contract: 4-year, $64 million with the Raptors

Actual Contract: 3-year, $51.8 million (player option) with the Raptors

Trent got more per-year money than I expected, and also got a player option so he can opt out in 2024, when he will still only be 24 years old. As such, I like this deal for Trent much more than I do for the Raptors.

Last updated: 8/22/2021

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