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Summary
Davis was one of the biggest surprises in the 2019 rookie class, as the undrafted wing was one of the best rookies in the league. Not many rookies contribute to winning on high-level teams, but Davis certainly did for the Raptors in '19-'20. Davis was pretty efficient, mostly due to his healthy shot profile for a role player. Davis finished well at the rim, hitting 66% of his attempts, and also shot an above-average 36% from three. While he shot extremely poorly from midrange, he hardly took any shots from there.

Davis also fit in well with the Raptors defensive scheme, and while he didn't stand out as a strong defender, he wasn't a weak link either, which is more of a compliment than it seems considering that team had very few weak defenders. While Davis contributed during the regular season, he mostly fell out of the rotation in the playoffs, and I think it's a legitimate question about whether or not Davis will develop into someone that deserves minutes when the games matter the most.

While Davis can hit some shots, he's not exactly great at any one particular skill. Having solid wings is always helpful, but most great teams will likely have plenty of better alternatives at that position than Davis. Davis got off to a slow start this season, as his percentages were mostly down across the board, and the Raptors traded him to Sacramento for a mid-second round pick.

Davis played decently for the Kings, providing a scoring punch near the end of the season when the Kings were short-handed. He has also had some off-court issues that teams will certainly consider before offering him a contract this summer as a free agent.
 
Cap Considerations
Davis will be a restricted free agent with a $1.9 million cap hold and Qualifying Offer, and the Kings will have his Early Bird rights. If the Kings re-sign Davis using the Early-Bird Exception, they could offer him a starting salary of up to 105% of the average salary this past season (roughly $10 million). They could also use cap space to re-sign him if he demands more than that.

Since Davis will only have two years of service, he will be subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision. This means that any offer sheet he signs with a team besides Sacramento can have a starting maximum salary of $9.5 million, but the third and potentially fourth years of that contract can have a large jump (up to the max). His cap hit would then be the average salary over the life of the contract.

If the Kings match, they could choose for his cap hit to either be his actual salary per season or the average over the life of the contract, provided the average fits within the Early Bird Exception. I do not expect this to come into play for Davis, as I think any offers for him would fit within the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Potential Teams: Kings, Bulls, Hornets, Knicks, Pistons

Predicted Contract: 1-year, $4.9 million with the Kings

Actual Contract: 2-year, $8 million with the Kings

Davis got similar value to what I predicted, as I had him pegged for around the Room MLE. He got a little bit less than that, but got an extra year.

Last updated: 8/17/2021

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