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Summary
The last two and a half seasons have gone about poorly as possible for Smith. Despite starting in every game he played for Dallas in his rookie season,  he was wildly inefficient, as his 44.8% eFG% was near the bottom of the league, according to Cleaning the Glass. That efficiency improved slightly in his second season, but after the Mavs drafted Luka Doncic and handed him the keys, Smith was no longer a great fit and was traded to New York in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Smith struggled in New York, missing games and continuing to struggle with his efficiency. He was traded to Detroit this season, but didn't show much there either.
 
It just doesn't seem like the playmaking instincts are there, and he may not be the athlete that he was considered to be coming out of college. If Smith can hit pullup jumpers at a solid rate and improve his craft in finishing at the rim - similar to what Trey Burke has done to revive his career - he may be able to stick around. At age 23, teams may still be willing to give Smith flyers, but time is running out. He may not be able to get a fully-guaranteed contract this summer. Luckily for him, as a top-10 pick he has already made over $17 million in his career - not generation-changing money, but life-changing money if managed well.
 
Cap Considerations
Smith will be a restricted free agent with a $17.1 million cap hold and a $7 million Qualifying Offer. If the Pistons do not have interest in bringing back Smith they could refuse to tender him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent. With Smith's QO being on the higher end, I think this is likely to occur. If Smith is re-signed on a multi-year contract above the minimum, front-loading the contract could be beneficial, as the Pistons have plenty of space now.
 
Other teams will have multiple ways to sign Smith as even teams without cap space could possibly use either of the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Taxpayer MLE, or possibly even the Room MLE to sign him to an offer sheet. However, Smith being a restricted free agent would greatly lower his interest among teams, as they will worry that the only way to pry him away from Detroit might be to overpay him. Realistically, Smith will likely be an unrestricted free agent that could be had for a minimum contract.

Potential Teams: Kings, Pelicans, Rockets, Pistons, Wizards

Predicted Contract: 1-year, $1.8 million ($1.7 million cap hit) with the Kings

Actual Contract: 1-year, $1.8 million (non-guaranteed) with the Trailblazers

Smith signed a non-guaranteed minimum contract with Portland, but he has a legitimate shot of making the roster given the spots available

Last updated: 9/4/2021

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